Articles

Intrinsic linkages in dynamic multistate populations

Robert Schoen

Abstract


   

The Intrinsic Linkage approach assumes a linear relationship between (i) a population's initial age/state composition, (ii) the dominant (intrinsic) component of the projection matrix that moves the population forward, and (iii) the resultant population composition.  Here, the Intrinsic Linkage approach is extended to multistate models, and new relationships are developed to determine population growth and state composition.  Under Intrinsic Linkage, a population can be analytically projected to any future point from knowledge of the dominant components of the population projection matrices and the linkage parameters, which reflect demographic metabolism (or interstate turnover).  Illustrative examples show how population values vary with the linkage parameter, how cyclical models can be specified, and how the approach can synthesize cohort analyses.

Robert SCHOEN, Senior Scholar, Department of Sociology and Affiliate, Population Research Institute, Penn State University, University Park PA, USA. E-mail: rschoen309@att.net.


Keywords


intrinsic linkage; multistate populations; dynamic models; population projection; demographic metabolism

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ISSN: 2035-5556

Reg. Tribunale di Roma n. 3321/54