Articles

Effects of changes in household structure on future housing demand in Hebei Province, China

Yi Zeng, Lan Li, Zhenglian Wang, Helin Huang, Jessie Norris

Abstract


This article presents households and housing demand projections in rural and urban areas of Hebei, a province with 72 million residents and median level of socioeconomics in China, using most recent census and other data and ProFamy extended cohort-component method. The results show that, due to changes in households, demand for both owned-housing and rental housing for elders aged 65+ will grow dramatically, but housing demand will decline for young people aged less than 35. One-person households will have the largest growth in demand for 1-2 room owned-housing; one-couple households will have the largest growth in demand for 3-4 room owned-housing. Demand for larger housing units for three-generation households will go down. We discuss some relevant policy considerations such as “dual-apartment” housing for elderly parents’ neighbouring with their children, which may result in a win-win outcome for both generations in facing the serious challenges of population aging. Yi ZENG, Professor, Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing, China, and Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development and Geriatrics Davison, School of Medicine, Duke University, Box 3003, Room 1506, BUSSE Building, Duke University Durham, NC 27710, U.S.A. E-mail: zengy68@gmail.com. Lan LI, Institute of Macroeconomic Research, Commission of Development and Reform, Hebei Province, Room 815, Hebei Veteran Center, Shijiazhuang City in Hebei Province, zip code 050051, China. E-mail: hhlchd@sina.com. Zhenglian WANG, Center for Population Aging and Health, Population Research Institute, Duke University, Box 3003, Room 1506, BUSSE Building, Duke University Durham, NC 27710, U.S.A. E-mail: wangzl8886@gmail.com. Helin HUANG, Institute of Macroeconomic Research, Commission of Development and Reform, Hebei Province, Room 804, Hebei Veteran Center, Shijiazhuang City in Hebei Province, zip code 050051, China. E-mail: hgs2008@yahoo.com.cn. Jessie NORRIS, National University College of Medicine, Taiwan, China. E-mail: jessielnorris@gmail.com.

Keywords


Household projection; Housing demand projection; Hebei Province of China; ProFamy model

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ISSN: 2035-5556

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