Migrations and demographic projections: a new methodology to jointly build labor market and demographic scenarios

Michele Bruni


After a critical appraisal of the assumptions used by the Population Division to make demographic projections, the paper introduces a demand driven model to jointly build labor market and demographic scenarios. The model generates a representation of the demographic future of the world extremely different from the one portrayed by the Population Division: i) international migrations will increase to unprecedented levels; ii) below replacement fertility countries will register relevant demographic expansions; iii) numerous departure countries, including China, will become arrival countries. Since migrations are demand driven, the paper suggests the creation of an Education Migration Fund to which receiving countries should transfer an amount of money equivalent to the cost incurred by departure countries to produce the human capital they have imported. The aim of the Fund will be to improve the education systems of departure countries, a key policy to activate a catch up process.

Michele BRUNI, Professor of Economy, Centre for the Analysis of Public Policies, Faculty of Economics M. Biag, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy. E-mail: mbbruni44@gmail.com.


migration; scenario; model; labour market

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ISSN: 2035-5556

Reg. Tribunale di Roma n. 3321/54