Spatial pattern of fertility transition in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar: a district level analysis

Malay Das, Sanjay K Mohanty


Using data from census of India 1991-2011, this paper examines the fertility transition in the districts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The fertility transition is assessed with respect to change in total fertility rate (TFR). To derive the TFR in 2011, the CBR is estimated using the population under 7 years of age through Reverse Survival method. The fertility estimates for 1991 and 2001 are borrowed from published sources. Multilevel linear regression analysis is carried out to examine the factors determining fertility and to capture the variation in fertility attributable to differences in district level characteristics. Results indicate that the fertility transition was more apace in most districts of Uttar Pradesh while it was slow in most districts of Bihar. Factors such as women’s years of schooling, age at marriage, the size of the Muslim population and child mortality are the most important predictors of fertility variations across the districts in these states.

Malay DAS, Senior Research Scholar, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, India. E-mail:

Saniay K. MOHANTY, Associate Professor, Department of Fertility Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, India. E-mail:


Fertility Transition, Spatial Pattern, District, India

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ISSN: 2035-5556

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