The paper presents a stochastic approach to population projections based on micro-simulations of birth-death-immigration-emigration point event processes. This approach allows computing forecast intervals also for conventional population projections and an application is done on the Eurostat population projections 2008-based (EUROPOP2008). The paper shows how it is possible to obtain predictions about all the parameters describing the evolution of a population in a stochastic context, taking into account the expert's opinion as incorporated in deterministic projections.
Salvatore BERTINO, Senior Professor, Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, P.le Aldo Moro, Rome, Italy. E-mail: email@example.com.
Eugenio SONNINO, Professor of Demography, Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, P.le Aldo Moro, Rome, Italy.
Giampaolo LANZIERI, Head, EUROSTAT, Population Unit, Luxembourg. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
- DOI: 10.4402/genus-432
Reg. Tribunale di Roma n. 3321/54