This study investigates spatial and temporal changes in the fertility behavior of cohorts of Indian women. Data from all three National Family Health Surveys have been used in this study. A six parameter Gompertz model has been proposed and made use of for quantification of the fertility behavior of the cohorts of Indian women. Findings include (1) drop expected in Cohort Total Fertility Rate (CTFR) was the highest in North-east India ( from 5.80 to 3.08) and the lowest in Central India (from 6.34 to 4.76) among the cohorts of women who ended their reproductive period in 1993 and those who will end their reproductive period in 2025. (2) Assuming that any changes in the CTFR are linear across cohorts until it reaches the replacement level fertility of 2.1, the study found that only those cohorts of women in the South India who will end their reproductive period after 2024 will end up with replacement level fertility. The corresponding year of achieving replacement level fertility for the women in West, North-east, North, East and the Central India are expected to be 2031, 2037, 2044, 2047 and 2079 respectively. However, the year of achieving replacement level fertility in Central, East and the North India can be brought down by improving the quality of family planning services in these regions.
Samba S.R. PASUPULETI, Senior Research Fellow, Population Studies Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 B.T. Road, Kolkata-700108, India. E-mail: email@example.com...
Prasanta PATHAK, Assistant Professor, Population Studies Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 B.T. Road, Kolkata-700108, India. E-mail: prsnt@ isical.ac.in
- DOI: 10.4402/genus-278
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