In this paper the author reflects on what forecasting is, defined therein as prospective analysis (as opposed to simulation and prediction proper). As such, the paper constitutes a significant departure from the mainstream view of forecasting by shifting the emphasis from the predictability paradigm to the impact paradigm, from forecast as discovering to forecast as creating the future. Today we have access to tools that have a wide range of applicability and are of various degrees of sophistication, depending on the particular future-directed task at hand, and also having a better understanding of the role of forecasting. We are better equipped, technologically and hopefully also cognitively, to manage the future. It is easy to recognize that this author’s stance towards the future — prospects and events that loom on the horizon — is distinctly proactive and not merely submissive or reactive. Though some of the issues raised in this paper have been discussed elsewhere by the author and other writes, the paper offers a coherent, well rounded, synthesis of epistemological assessment of forecasting, and as such is likely to be of interest to both producers and users thereof.
Anatole ROMANIUK, Adjunct professor, Ph.D., Department of Sociology, University of Alberta, Canada. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
- DOI: 10.4402/genus-153
Reg. Tribunale di Roma n. 3321/54